Technology pathways for long-term decarbonisation scenarios
As the European Commission is gearing for analysis of deep decarbonisation pathways, it has been reviewing the technology assumptions – both in terms of costs and performance. Technology assumptions are an essential input to any modelling exercise, and one which has a high influence on results.
At this EUSEW session, the consultants of the Commission (E3M, ECOFYS, Tractabel) will present the results of the review and discuss it with representatives of other international organisations experts (notably IEA, IRENA, UCL) and the public. Both novel technologies (around synthetic fuels, sector coupling and storage), and consolidated technologies that are currently being exploited but with potential for further decarbonisation (renewables, energy efficiency technologies, nuclear and CCS (including biomass CCS)) are subject of this review.
Technology development are subject to many uncertainties and while we cannot "predict the future", we strive to obtain modelling input that is based on our best knowledge today, that is robust and representative of current projects, as well as industry's expectations. This is why Commission's consultants not only performed academic literature review but reached out also to industry stakeholders.
The discussion will take place on uncertainties, the most promising technologies, the modelling exercise that can hedge against such uncertainties, the consensus and (or its lack) among industrial stakeholders and the conditions for successful development of technologies.
With this session Commission aims to raise the awareness and seeks full transparency of this essential modelling input. Once discussed at EUSEW, the technology assumptions will be published by the Commission.